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Action on Smoking and Health
A National Legal-Action Antismoking Organization Entirely Supported by Tax-Deductible Contributions
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By RICHARD PÉREZ-PEÑA The New York Times [05/12/04]
In the wake of huge tobacco tax increases and a ban on smoking in bars, the
number of adult smokers in New York City fell 11 percent from 2002 to 2003, one
of the steepest short-term declines ever measured, according to surveys
commissioned by the city.
The surveys, to be released today, show that after holding steady for a decade, the number of regular smokers dropped more than 100,000 in a little more than a year, to 19.3 percent of adults from 21.6 percent. The decline occurred across all boroughs, ages and ethnic groups.
The surveys also found a 13 percent decline in cigarette consumption, suggesting that smokers who did not quit were smoking less. Like similar local and national polls, the surveys counted as smokers all people who said that they had smoked more than 100 cigarettes in their lives and that they now smoked every day or "some days."
City health officials and opponents of smoking said they believed that the decline was caused primarily by sharply higher tobacco taxes that went into effect in 2002, including an increase to $1.50 from 8 cents a pack in New York City.
The drop also coincided with a new city law banning smoking in bars, a new state law prohibiting it in restaurants and
bars, and the Bloomberg administration's aggressive anti-smoking campaign, which
has included advertising and the distribution of free nicotine patches to
thousands of people.
Administration officials said that the 2002 and 2003 telephone surveys were conducted for the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene by Baruch College researchers using identical methods and that the random dialing approach and questions were the same as those used in annual surveys by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They also point out that the city polls used very large samples, 10,000 people each time, which pollsters say makes the results more authoritative. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1 percentage point, officials said.
Other evidence also suggests a sharp drop in smoking, including lower city and state tobacco tax revenue, sales of products like nicotine patches and gum, and anecdotal reports of greater enrollment in smoking cessation programs.
"New York did the perfect trifecta that no one has attempted before — raising taxes very steeply, making it harder to smoke indoors, and promoting cessation, so you would expect a dramatic result," said Dr. Steven A. Schroeder, a professor of health and health care at the University of California at San Francisco and a former president of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which finances health care research. "Most cities and states aren't doing much of anything."
Legislation to raise the minimum legal age for smoking to 19 from 18 in New York State has been proposed. Yesterday, when asked about the proposal, Mr. Bloomberg said: "I certainly would not be opposed to raising the age. You know, I've done what I think I can to discourage smoking in the city."
According to the Centers for Disease Control, adult smoking nationwide declined steadily from the first surgeon general's warning in the 1960's to the early 1990's, then held steady, though it continued to decline among teenagers. Annual federal surveys by the Centers for Disease Control show the adult rate, both nationally and in New York State, steady at about 23 percent for several years, through 2002, the most recent year for which numbers are available.
"This city survey shows what can happen if you attack it really hard," said Russell Sciandra, director of the Center for a Tobacco-Free New York, an advocacy group. "It is not at all surprising. This is what we said all along would happen if you sharply raised the cost of smoking."
New York State raised its tax on cigarettes from 56 cents a pack to $1.11 in March 2000, and on April 1, 2002, lifted it to $1.50, one of the highest tobacco taxes in the country. New York City raised its tax on July 1, 2002, from 8 cents to $1.50, by far the highest local levy in the country. The federal tax rose to 34 cents from 24 cents in January 2000, and to 39 cents on Jan. 1, 2002.
So the combined city, state and federal levies on a pack stood at 88 cents at the end of 1999, $1.53 at the end of 2001, and $3.39 by mid-2002.
A new city law took effect on April 1, 2003, prohibiting smoking in bars and eliminating limited exceptions to the previous ban on smoking in restaurants. A statewide ban in restaurants and bars took effect on July 24.
The city conducted its 2002 survey from May to July, and the 2003 canvass from April to November.
In 2002 and 2003, taxed cigarette sales declined about 25 percent statewide and about 40 percent in the city, according to government officials. Some of that drop reflects increased efforts to evade higher taxes, like Internet sales and bootlegging. In the city today, a name-brand pack of 20 cigarettes typically retails for $7 to $8, but nontaxed packs smuggled into the city can be bought illegally on many street corners for about $5.
In 2002, drugstore sales of antismoking products — mostly nicotine patches and gum — rose 3.3 percent nationally and 9.7 percent in New York State, according to Information Resources Inc., a company that tracks drug sales. In 2003, as the products' prices rose, sales dropped 8.7 percent nationally. Sales fell less sharply in New York, by 7.5 percent, or about 50,000 units, but those figures do not include the 35,000 nicotine patch kits the city sent to smokers free last year.
Health researchers say that smoking cuts short the lives of about one-third of long-term smokers, by an average of about 14 years. Dr. Frieden, the city health commissioner, said reducing the smoking population by 100,000 people, if the change is permanent, "means that there will be at least 30,000 fewer premature deaths."
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